Coastal communities around the Great Lakes are at risk of flooding. The Federal Emergency Management Agency contracted Baird to complete a study of coastal threats on Lake Ontario.

Project Highlights

Baird assessed wave and storm surge levels in Lake Ontario using the ADCIRC and SWAN numerical models to simulate 150 extreme storm events. The study included:

• Long‐term and seasonal‐scale water level variation analyses
• Short time‐scale event definition for storm surge
• Development of statistical analysis approach to select extreme storms
• Wind and pressure field generation for Lake Ontario
• Evaluation of ice fields
• Wave and storm surge modeling

Project Challenges:

• Developing efficient models to simulate the physical processes from 150 extreme events for all of Lake Ontario
• Incorporating ice into the models
• Large amount of data processing required to support statistical analysis and modelling

Project Solutions:

• Efficient models were developed using a flexible mesh, where mesh size was a function of water depth.  This allowed for high resolution in the nearshore
• The SWAN model was configured to include historical ice cover conditions
• In-house programs were developed to increase data processing efficiency